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“Nike Effect” Working, Shares Sit Just Below All-Time High
Nike’s (NKE) transformation from wholesaler to mobile-first DTC retailers has been successful (+16% YoY in ’17 vs. overall corporate growth +6% YoY) and the company’s market cap ($118.84 billion) continues to rise as a result, despite recent C-level turnover. Dubbed the “Nike Effect” by CEO Mark Parker, the revamped strategy has NKE focusing on just 40 retailers while prioritizing its direct to consumer sales channels (think: storefronts, nike.com, Nike app, SNKRs app). Nike uses the data collected from its 100 million “members” to create a more personalized/rewarding shopping experience on those channels and to identify underserved demographic groups (think: females). Wedbush analyst Cristopher Svezia recently wrote that he expects Nike’s DTC sales to “push overall sales into positive territory in fiscal 2019.”
Howie Long-Short: Nike decision to control the means of distribution has helped the company alter its image with “sneakerheads”, which soured when the company began to overproduce its most desirable lines (i.e. Jordan). The lack of buzz surrounding the brand contributed to the loss of market share it experienced in 2017 (-1.6% to 32.9%). While limited edition drops make up a small portion of Nike sales (+/- 5%), the enthusiasm generated by the company’s most engaged consumers helps the perception of the brand and leads to mainstream consumer sales.
The “Nike Effect” has been validated by a “significant reversal of trend in North America”, growth in DTC sales and improved international sales (+24% YOY in China, +19% in Middle East and Africa) as the company beat analyst expectations (revenue + 7% to $8.98 billion) in fiscal Q3 ‘18.Shares closed at $71.31 on Tuesday, just below their all-time $72.19.
Unfortunately, Nike’s old brick and mortar partners (think: FL, FINL) have struggled to replace the revenue Nike product generated. FINL reported same store sales declined -7.9% in Q4 ’17, while FL reported same store sales were down -3.7% during that same period. FL will report Q1 ’18 financials on Friday 5.25.
Fan Marino: Limited edition Nike sneakers (including Jordans) are distributed through Nike’s SNKRs app (separate from NIKE app), a digital platform that gamifies (including a virtual queue) the shopping experience for company’s most wanted products. On June 23rd, SNKRs will have one of this summer’s most highly anticipated sneaker drops, the Travis Scott “Cactus Jack” Air Jordan 4. While the shoes will retail for $225, the current asking price on GOAT is $2,015; so, unless you have a lot of cash to burn, make sure to download the app, have your credit card information stored and be ready for the alert at 10a on 6.23.
Fun Fact: Prior to being acquired by NKE (in ’16) and rebranded as SNKRs, the community building and shopping app was named “Virgin Mega” and backed by Richard Branson’s Virgin Group. Financial terms of that deal were not disclosed.
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DAZN Exec Markowski Discusses Unseating ESPN and NFL’s Global Popularity
U.K. based promoter Matchroom Boxing and Perform Group formed a joint venture, Matchroom Boxing USA, to promote 16 fight cards in the U.S. annually over eight years. Perform Group, which has committed $1 billion to the venture (the largest investment in boxing history), will broadcast the events on its digital streaming service, DAZN. JohnWallStreet had the chance to talk with DAZN SVP Commercial and Partnerships Joe Markowski about the company’s approach to entering the U.S. market, its global ambitions and interest in the NFL overseas.
JWS: Chief Executive James Rushton said his goal was to make DAZN “the largest and most significant sports broadcaster in the world.” Can that be accomplished without unseating ESPN in the U.S. market?
Joe: I don’t think we would say our ambition is to become the number one sports broadcaster in the U.S. We recognize the maturity of the sports broadcast market here and we realize to “unseat ESPN” would require a significant investment and access to rights which currently are not available on the market. We have a defined set of rights we’re working with and we’re very confident we can establish ourselves using those rights here.
JWS: I’ve seen DAZN described as “Netflix for Sports”. Please explain the comparison, as I see Netflix as an on-demand service – whereas sports are watched live?
Joe: It’s an easy way to way to describe OTT, because that’s not a widely-known term among consumers; people have become accustomed to OTT via Netflix. We see it as an easy way to describe our ambitions, which are to be the pre-eminent global broadcaster of sports content via OTT.
JWS: It’s been estimated that there are 10 million boxing fans in the U.S., with 3 million identifying as hardcore fans that spend money on PPV fights. The May 12th Lomachenko/Linares fight that aired on ESPN drew 1 million viewers. Considering those viewers get ESPN with their cable subscription (i.e. it didn’t cost them any additional money to watch), is that the ceiling for subscriptions sold within the first year of the deal?
Joe: We don’t look at it through a 12 month lense, we are making an eight-year long-term commitment here. That is consistent with what we’ve done in other markets. Our primary rights relationships in a market will always be long-term (see: 10-year deal with Japanese soccer league in Japan), sometimes with our hand on the steering wheel – where its’s more than just a broadcast relationship (think: board membership); that’s the case here with Matchroom Boxing USA. Of course, there are KPIs, a CEO and investors to keep happy, but for us the most important metrics are three, five, eight years out.
JWS: For the last 30 years, boxing’s biggest match-ups have occurred on PPV. Your model is based on monthly subscriptions sold. Why does the sport’s business model need to be revamped?
Joe: We see the PPV model as underserving the boxing fan. We recognize PPV costs vary, but we think even at $59.99 that’s inflated for a single night of boxing and we’re going to serve the customer in a very different way. If you look what we did with McGregor/Mayweather, we made that available via our standard rolling monthly subscription mechanism, which includes a free first month. It gives the user affordability and flexibility. From a business model perspective, we want to serve you with enough content, engaging content and a schedule of upcoming content that you see value in and you stick around for it; and our price point, when we announce it in late June/early June, will reflect that.
JWS: There is a perception that while the NBA is a global game, the NFL lacks a following outside of the U.S. You guys carry NFL games (live) and RedZone in several international markets. Do league games draw viewers?
Joe: The NFL has done a wonderful job of internationalizing their business. We carry that content in Germany and it does really well for us there. We carry NFL content in Japan. It does well for us there, but I’m not going to pretend it’s a top-tier sport as domestic content trumps it. In Canada, it’s a jewel in our crown; you can make the argument that it’s the number 3 sport there. As a guy coming from London, that market is growing YoY. I can definitely see growth across various metrics as a fan and as a league partner (Perform Group) of theirs, across various European markets. As we scale, we see the NFL as a key partner in markets far away from North America.
Howie: Perform Group is a subsidiary of privately held Access Industries. The sports media company counts The Sports News and Goal among its U.S. publications. While you can’t invest in Perform Group, there is one way to play DAZN; Dentsu, a Japanese advertising firm that trades publicly on the Tokyo Stock Exchange under the symbol (TYO: 4324). In late March, Dentsu invested in DAZN as part of a deal “which made the service available to customers of mobile phone operator NTT Docomo.” No information has been released relating to the size of the investment or the valuation placed on the company.
Fan Marino: Considering NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL rights are tied up into the early part of the 2020s, I asked Joe what else U.S. sports fan can expect to see on the service upon its launch?
Joe: Our approach to rights acquisition is not going to be in a silo (i.e. fight sports), we’ll make some other announcements soon; this is very much a multi-sport service that will carry premium rights for a number of top-tier sports. Again, we are in this for the long-term; we have engaged and will engage with the big 4. Immediately, you’ll see a broad offering touching on soccer, international sports and domestic content where it’s available.
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What is JohnWallStreet?
JohnWallStreet, located at the intersection of sports and finance, is a destination for the educated sports fan.
While we won’t be publishing “hot takes” on LeBron’s relative greatness to Jordan, we will be offering up the most relevant sports related business news, in easily digestible bites, with commentary from both the sports money and sports fanatic perspectives.
We’ll cover publicly traded professional teams & stadiums (MSG, RCI, BATRA, MANU), television networks (DIS, FOXA, CMCSA, CBS, TWX, MSGN), apparel & footwear companies (NKE, UAA, ADDYY, FL, LULU), equipment companies (GOLF, ELY, FIT), ticketing companies (EBAY, LYV) content and facilities providers (CHDN, DVD, ISCA,TRK, LMCA). If it trades on Wall Street, and has a sports angle, it’s in our wheel house.
Howie Long-Short and Fan Marino will be providing their expert opinions on each story. They have slightly different areas of expertise. Fan Marino is a firm believer that the SEC is the premier football conference. Howie Long-Short knows it as the Securities & Exchange Commission. Fan Marino lives and dies with the college selection of 5 star, blue chip recruits. Howie Long-Short spends his days analyzing blue chip stocks. Howie Long-Short knows that Black Monday occurred on October 19th, 1987. Fan Marino swears it happens every January after Week 17. You get the point.
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