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The college football world is being given a treat this weekend with a trio of massive games. With all due respect to the fans of Michigan vs Penn State as well as Oklahoma State and TCU, the eyes of the nation will be on Knoxville. Alabama heading to Rocky Top and taking on Tennessee is the feature game of the weekend.
No. 3 Alabama has not lost to No. 6 Tennessee in 15 years. This game constitutes the Vols best change to get a win since 2006 — the year before Nick Saban took over at Alabama, if you are doing the math.
The line in this game opened up with Bama as a 7.5-point favorite (still great value, but if you bought this in the preseason, it was 16.5). That number, to me, says that Vegas really believes in Alabama despite a lot of close battles and near-loss escapes. Or that there is more knowledge on Bryce Young’s health than is being reported.
All of the obvious advantages are coming up in favor of Tennessee for this: At home. Playing well. Rested. Not off an emotionally taxing game. Motivated. If you give the Vols the three points for being at home, the true line here is Alabama (-10.5) and that makes even less sense given the current status of Young (and the Bama offense as a whole).
That is where the rubber meets the road: Bryce Young.
Young sprained the AC joint in his throwing shoulder on Oct. 1 against Arkansas. He did not even throw a pass in warm-ups prior to the game against Texas A&M. Perhaps that is because it was already decided that he wasn’t risking anything with Tennessee on the horizon and he is healthy. Perhaps it was because he is really hurt and is going to miss this weekend, too. The line suggests the former.
There are multiple ways to play this game and it depends on when you are reading this:
If you are seeing this without an update on Young, take the +7.5. If Alabama plays without Young the Vols probably win outright. With him it can still be a close game and those points — especially getting the hook — is too much to pass up.
Once there is an update on Young there will be a rush to the window. It can go one of two ways:
If Young is playing, then you should get to the over. Every decent quarterback that has played Alabama AND Tennessee has had success throwing the ball against them. If Young is healthy, both teams are going to score. A lot.
Now, if Young is out, you are likely not going to get +7.5 but it makes Tennessee more desirable. Alabama struggled to move the ball through the air against Texas A&M and if you can still get points, take them!
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